Publicaciones

@article{MurrayTortarolo2021c,

title = {A breviary of Earth's climate changes using Stephan-Boltzmann law},

author = {Guillermo Nicolás Murray Tortarolo},

url = {https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53102},

doi = {10.20937/atm.53102},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-12-01},

urldate = {2021-12-01},

journal = {Atmósfera},

publisher = {Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y Cambio Climatico},

keywords = {climate change, Extreme climate events},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{MurrayTortarolo2021b,

title = {Drought as a driver of Mexico-US migration},

author = {Guillermo N Murray-Tortarolo and Mario Marínez Salgado},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03030-2},

doi = {10.1007/s10584-021-03030-2},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

volume = {164},

number = {3-4},

publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},

abstract = {Emigration from Mexico to the USA represents one of the largest current socioeconomic phenomena in the world. Climate, and particularly drought, has been identified as a key driver of peak migratory flows between the two nations. However, current existing studies are constrained by a reduced spatial scale (e.g., a single community or municipality) or a short time-window (e.g. <10 years), which limits our long-term nationwide understanding of the climate-migration relationship. To tackle this, we employed high-resolution (municipal-level) and long-term databases (1970–2009), which included nation-level interviews, border patrol apprehensions, and high-resolution precipitation. Our results showed that the decadal and maximum migratory fluxes in these four decades corresponded to years with low precipitation. In particular, the migration of low-income rural farmers tripled during drought, representing as much as a third of all historical migration. It is very likely that rural people were pushed to leave their lands as the result of strongly diminished rainfed agriculture and pastureland production, their main livelihood. Our results suggest that policy oriented to reduce the negative impacts of drought (such as livestock drought insurances and the provisioning of drought-resistant seeds), particularly to marginal farmers in arid ecosystems, could be an effective way to reduce current and future migratory peaks between Mexico and the USA},

keywords = {climate change, drought, Extreme climate events, food security, Migration},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{MurrayTortarolo2021,

title = {Seven decades of climate change across Mexico},

author = {Guillermo N Murray-Tortarolo},

url = {https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.52803},

doi = {10.20937/atm.52803},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

journal = {Atmósfera},

publisher = {Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera},

keywords = {climate change, Extreme climate events},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{MurrayTortarolo2020,

title = {Precipitation extremes in recent decades impact cattle populations at the global and national scales},

author = {Guillermo N Murray-Tortarolo and Víctor J Jaramillo},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139557},

doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139557},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Science of The Total Environment},

volume = {736},

pages = {139557},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

keywords = {cattle, climate change, Extreme climate events, livestock},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Jaramillo2019,

title = {The impact of extreme weather events on livestock populations: the case of the 2011 drought in Mexico},

author = {Guillermo N Murray-tortarolo and Víctor J Jaramillo},

url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-019-02373-1?utm_source=researcher_app&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=MKEF_USG_Researcher_inbound},

doi = {10.1007/s10584-019-02373-1},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

abstract = {textlessh3 class="a-plus-plus"textgreaterAbstracttextless/h3textgreater textlessp class="a-plus-plus"textgreaterExtreme weather events represent a large risk to food production systems. In this study, we evaluated the impacts of the 2011–2012 drought in Mexico, the worst in the last 70 years, on free-ranged livestock populations to link extreme weather events and production. We also considered the potential prevalence of recurring droughts under two contrasting future climate scenarios to examine what could happen over this century. Our results showed that cattle and goat stocks decreased about 3% in response to the drought countrywide. Regionally, the changes in cattle and goat populations generally mimicked the precipitation anomaly, with the strongest reductions across the driest areas in central and northern Mexico. Our work showed that the biophysical and management components of livestock production interact depending on the regions and the type of livestock, leading to a mosaic of spatial responses. It seems that the management of large herds limits the economic viability of drought crisis management options such as the importation of fodder and water, or by moving the animals to other pastures. Sheep herds were much less affected since more than 50% of the total sheep stock is raised in wetter states, which showed a relatively small (~ − 10%) precipitation anomaly during the drought. Under the severe climate change scenario, a greater frequency of extremely dry years (once every 3 years) would have negative impacts on livestock production regionally. Climate change together with already existing trends in overgrazing and soil erosion could further increase the sensitivity of livestock production across the country.textless/ptextgreater textlessp class="a-plus-plus"textgreater textlessspan class="a-plus-plus figure category-standard float-no id-figa"textgreater textlesscaption class="a-plus-plus caption language-en lang-en"textgreater textlessstrong class="a-plus-plus caption-number"textgreaterGraphical abstracttextless/strongtextgreater textlessem class="a-plus-plus caption-content"textgreater textlessdiv class="a-plus-plus simple-para"textgreaterᅟtextless/divtextgreater 

 textless/emtextgreater 

 textless/captiontextgreater textlessspan class="a-plus-plus media-object id-m-o1"textgreater textlessimg alt="" src="https://static-content.springer.com/image/MediaObjects/10584_2019_2373_Figa_HTML.png" class="a-plus-plus"/textgreater 

 textless/spantextgreater 

 textless/spantextgreater 

 textless/ptextgreater},

keywords = {cattle, Climate vulnerability, Extreme climate events, livestock},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Murray-Tortarolo2017,

title = {The decreasing range between dry- and wet-season precipitation over land and its effect on vegetation primary productivity},

author = {Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo and Víctor J Jaramillo and Manuel Maass and Pierre Friedlingstein and Stephen Sitch},

doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0190304},

issn = {19326203},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-01-01},

journal = {PLoS ONE},

volume = {12},

number = {12},

pages = {1--11},

abstract = {textcopyright 2017 Murray-Tortarolo et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. One consequence of climate change is the alteration of global water fluxes, both in amount and seasonality. As a result, the seasonal difference between dry- (p textless 100 mm/month) and wet-season (p textgreater 100 mm/month) precipitation (p) has increased over land during recent decades (1980–2005). However, our analysis expanding to a 60-year period (1950–2009) showed the opposite trend. This is, dry-season precipitation increased steadily, while wet-season precipitation remained constant, leading to reduced seasonality at a global scale. The decrease in seasonality was not due to a change in dry-season length, but in precipitation rate; thus, the dry season is on average becoming wetter without changes in length. Regionally, wet- and dry-season precipitations are of opposite sign, causing a decrease in the seasonal variation of the precipitation over 62% of the terrestrial ecosystems. Furthermore, we found a high correlation (r = 0.62) between the change in dry-season precipitation and the trend in modelled net primary productivity (NPP), which is explained based on different ecological mechanisms. This trend is not found with wet-season precipitation (r = 0.04), These results build on the argument that seasonal water availability has changed over the course of the last six decades and that the dry-season precipitation is a key driver of vegetation productivity at the global scale.},

keywords = {dry season length, Extreme climate events, NPP},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}