Publicaciones

@article{Estrada2023,

title = {Model emulators for the assessment of regional impacts and risks of climate change: A case study of rainfed maize production in Mexico},

author = {Francisco Estrada and Alma Mendoza and Guillermo Murray and Oscar Calderón-Bustamante and Wouter Botzen and Teresa De León Escobedo and Julián A. Velasco},

url = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1027545},

doi = {10.3389/fenvs.2023.1027545},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-03-01},

urldate = {2023-03-01},

journal = {Frontiers in Environmental Science},

volume = {11},

publisher = {Frontiers Media SA},

keywords = {Climate vulnerability, Earth system models, Maize},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Jaramillo2019,

title = {The impact of extreme weather events on livestock populations: the case of the 2011 drought in Mexico},

author = {Guillermo N Murray-tortarolo and Víctor J Jaramillo},

url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-019-02373-1?utm_source=researcher_app&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=MKEF_USG_Researcher_inbound},

doi = {10.1007/s10584-019-02373-1},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

abstract = {textlessh3 class="a-plus-plus"textgreaterAbstracttextless/h3textgreater textlessp class="a-plus-plus"textgreaterExtreme weather events represent a large risk to food production systems. In this study, we evaluated the impacts of the 2011–2012 drought in Mexico, the worst in the last 70 years, on free-ranged livestock populations to link extreme weather events and production. We also considered the potential prevalence of recurring droughts under two contrasting future climate scenarios to examine what could happen over this century. Our results showed that cattle and goat stocks decreased about 3% in response to the drought countrywide. Regionally, the changes in cattle and goat populations generally mimicked the precipitation anomaly, with the strongest reductions across the driest areas in central and northern Mexico. Our work showed that the biophysical and management components of livestock production interact depending on the regions and the type of livestock, leading to a mosaic of spatial responses. It seems that the management of large herds limits the economic viability of drought crisis management options such as the importation of fodder and water, or by moving the animals to other pastures. Sheep herds were much less affected since more than 50% of the total sheep stock is raised in wetter states, which showed a relatively small (~ − 10%) precipitation anomaly during the drought. Under the severe climate change scenario, a greater frequency of extremely dry years (once every 3 years) would have negative impacts on livestock production regionally. Climate change together with already existing trends in overgrazing and soil erosion could further increase the sensitivity of livestock production across the country.textless/ptextgreater textlessp class="a-plus-plus"textgreater textlessspan class="a-plus-plus figure category-standard float-no id-figa"textgreater textlesscaption class="a-plus-plus caption language-en lang-en"textgreater textlessstrong class="a-plus-plus caption-number"textgreaterGraphical abstracttextless/strongtextgreater textlessem class="a-plus-plus caption-content"textgreater textlessdiv class="a-plus-plus simple-para"textgreaterᅟtextless/divtextgreater 

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keywords = {cattle, Climate vulnerability, Extreme climate events, livestock},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Murray-Tortarolo2018,

title = {Food security and climate change: the case of rainfed maize production in Mexico},

author = {Guillermo N Murray-Tortarolo and Víctor J Jaramillo and John Larsen},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.02.011},

doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.02.011},

issn = {01681923},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},

volume = {253-254},

number = {July 2017},

pages = {124--131},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Climate change has altered global rainfall amounts and seasonality. Rainfed crops are particularly dependent on foreseeable rainfall, thus yields of maize, wheat and sorghum have decreased globally. Rainfed maize is the cornerstone of the agriculture in Mexico and the nutrition base of as many as twenty million people. Despite its relevance, the risk that climate change represents for this economic activity has not been studied in our country. We evaluated the link between rainfall variability and maize yields in Mexico across three different time periods: the present, the past 30 years and the remainder of this century (future) with RCPs scenarios. We found that rainfed agriculture was distributed as a function of the dry-season length, occurring in areas with a 4–9 months dry season, thus climate change may alter not only agricultural yields, but also the spatial distribution of land uses. There was a linear correlation (r = 0.45) between mean annual precipitation and rainfed maize production nationally for the period 1980–2012. The correlation was stronger (r = 0.91) during 2005–2012 when high-resolution data were available for the analysis. Correlation values were not homogeneously distributed within the country, although the minimum correlation was 0.35. In the future scenarios, yields were predicted to either not change or to decrease by as much as 10%. The strongest negative impacts were predicted across the Northeast and the South of the country, where yields declined by up to 30% in all scenarios.},

keywords = {Climate vulnerability, Milpa, Rainfed maize, RCPs},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}