2022
Arima, Eugenio Y.; Denvir, Audrey; Young, Kenneth R.; González-Rodríguez, Antonio; García-Oliva, Felipe
Modelling avocado-driven deforestation in Michoacán, Mexico Artículo de revista
En: Environmental Research Letters, vol. 17, iss. 3, 2022, ISSN: 17489326.
Resumen | Enlaces | Etiquetas: climate change, commodities, land change modelling, land use change
@article{Arima2022,
title = {Modelling avocado-driven deforestation in Michoacán, Mexico},
author = {Eugenio Y. Arima and Audrey Denvir and Kenneth R. Young and Antonio González-Rodríguez and Felipe García-Oliva},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac5419},
issn = {17489326},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-01-01},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
volume = {17},
issue = {3},
publisher = {IOP Publishing Ltd},
abstract = {As demand for avocado climbs, avocado production in Michoacán - Mexico's biggest avocado growing region - expands into new places. We use a spatial probit model to project the geographic distribution of likely future avocado expansion and analyze those results to determine (a) threats to specific forest types and (b) how the distribution of avocado is shifting spatially under current and future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that avocado expansion in Michoacán is strongly driven by distance to existing agriculture, roads, and localities, as well as the dwindling availability of Andosol soils. As future expansion ensues, it presents risk of forest loss across various forest types, with pine-oak forest, mesophilic montane forest, and oyamel fir forest being of particular concern. Moreover, our results suggest that avocado production will occupy wider ranges in terms of temperature, precipitation, slope steepness and soil. The model predicts that climate change will alter the spatial distribution of avocado plantings, expanding into forest types at lower and at higher elevations. Forest loss threatens ecosystem degradation, and a wider avocado crop production footprint could lead to orchard establishment into dwindling forests that host a high diversity of native oaks and charismatic species, including the monarch butterfly.},
keywords = {climate change, commodities, land change modelling, land use change},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
As demand for avocado climbs, avocado production in Michoacán - Mexico's biggest avocado growing region - expands into new places. We use a spatial probit model to project the geographic distribution of likely future avocado expansion and analyze those results to determine (a) threats to specific forest types and (b) how the distribution of avocado is shifting spatially under current and future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that avocado expansion in Michoacán is strongly driven by distance to existing agriculture, roads, and localities, as well as the dwindling availability of Andosol soils. As future expansion ensues, it presents risk of forest loss across various forest types, with pine-oak forest, mesophilic montane forest, and oyamel fir forest being of particular concern. Moreover, our results suggest that avocado production will occupy wider ranges in terms of temperature, precipitation, slope steepness and soil. The model predicts that climate change will alter the spatial distribution of avocado plantings, expanding into forest types at lower and at higher elevations. Forest loss threatens ecosystem degradation, and a wider avocado crop production footprint could lead to orchard establishment into dwindling forests that host a high diversity of native oaks and charismatic species, including the monarch butterfly.
2019
González-Esquivel, José Gerardo; Cuevas-Reyes, Pablo; González-Rodríguez, Antonio; Ávila-Cabadilla, Luis Daniel; Álvarez-Añorve, Mariana Yolotl; Fagundes, Marcilio; Maldonado-López, Yurixhi
Functional attributes of two Croton species in different successional stages of tropical dry forest: effects on herbivory and fluctuating asymmetry patterns Artículo de revista
En: Tropical Ecology, vol. 60, iss. 2, pp. 238-251, 2019, ISSN: 26618982.
Resumen | Enlaces | Etiquetas: Alkaloids, Chemical defense, Herbivores, land use change, Morphological variation, Phenols, Succession
@article{Gonzalez-Esquivel2019,
title = {Functional attributes of two Croton species in different successional stages of tropical dry forest: effects on herbivory and fluctuating asymmetry patterns},
author = {José Gerardo González-Esquivel and Pablo Cuevas-Reyes and Antonio González-Rodríguez and Luis Daniel Ávila-Cabadilla and Mariana Yolotl Álvarez-Añorve and Marcilio Fagundes and Yurixhi Maldonado-López},
doi = {10.1007/s42965-019-00027-y},
issn = {26618982},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-01-01},
journal = {Tropical Ecology},
volume = {60},
issue = {2},
pages = {238-251},
abstract = {Tropical dry forests are among the most threatened ecosystems in the world. After habitat perturbation occurs, the habitat recovers naturally through ecological succession. This succession can modify functional attributes of plants, which in turn, can affect herbivorous insects’ performance. We analyzed morphological, functional, and chemical traits associated with herbivory patterns in Croton roxanae and C. suberosus, that occur in mature and secondary forests in the tropical dry forest of Chamela, Jalisco. Leaf area and leaf thickness were higher in secondary forest, while leaf density and fresh leaf mass were higher in mature forest. Dry leaf mass, specific leaf area, chlorophyll content, and water content showed variation between species in both forest conditions. The concentration of secondary metabolites showed variation between species and forest conditions. Croton roxanae showed higher herbivory in mature forest, and C. suberosus did not show differences between the two conditions. Leaves in secondary forest were slightly longer and broader than leaves in mature forest. Croton species showed higher fluctuating asymmetry in secondary forest. Herbivory was not associated with levels of fluctuating asymmetry levels in both Croton species. Our results suggest that plant attributes are influenced by forest condition, which in turn, indirectly affect the attack of herbivores.},
keywords = {Alkaloids, Chemical defense, Herbivores, land use change, Morphological variation, Phenols, Succession},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Tropical dry forests are among the most threatened ecosystems in the world. After habitat perturbation occurs, the habitat recovers naturally through ecological succession. This succession can modify functional attributes of plants, which in turn, can affect herbivorous insects’ performance. We analyzed morphological, functional, and chemical traits associated with herbivory patterns in Croton roxanae and C. suberosus, that occur in mature and secondary forests in the tropical dry forest of Chamela, Jalisco. Leaf area and leaf thickness were higher in secondary forest, while leaf density and fresh leaf mass were higher in mature forest. Dry leaf mass, specific leaf area, chlorophyll content, and water content showed variation between species in both forest conditions. The concentration of secondary metabolites showed variation between species and forest conditions. Croton roxanae showed higher herbivory in mature forest, and C. suberosus did not show differences between the two conditions. Leaves in secondary forest were slightly longer and broader than leaves in mature forest. Croton species showed higher fluctuating asymmetry in secondary forest. Herbivory was not associated with levels of fluctuating asymmetry levels in both Croton species. Our results suggest that plant attributes are influenced by forest condition, which in turn, indirectly affect the attack of herbivores.