Publicaciones

@article{Krause2018,

title = {Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts},

author = {Andreas Krause and Thomas A M Pugh and Anita D Bayer and Wei Li and Felix Leung and Alberte Bondeau and Jonathan C Doelman and Florian Humpenöder and Peter Anthoni and Benjamin L Bodirsky and Philippe Ciais and Christoph Müller and Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo and Stefan Olin and Alexander Popp and Stephen Sitch and Elke Stehfest and Almut Arneth},

doi = {10.1111/gcb.14144},

issn = {13652486},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Global Change Biology},

volume = {24},

number = {7},

pages = {3025--3038},

abstract = {textcopyright 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land-based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land-based mitigation scenarios from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land-use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land-use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land-use change. Differences between land-use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land-based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy.},

keywords = {avoided deforestation and afforestation, carbon dioxide removal, land-based mitigation},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Salazar2018,

title = {The ecology of peace: preparing Colombia for new political and planetary climates},

author = {Alejandro Salazar and Adriana Sanchez and Juan Camilo Villegas and Juan F Salazar and Daniel Ruiz Carrascal and Stephen Sitch and Juan Dar í and Germ á and Kenneth J Feeley and Lina M Mercado and Paola A Arias and Carlos A Sierra and Maria Rosario del Uribe and Angela Rend M ó and Juan Carlos P é and Guillermo Murray Tortarolo and Daniel Mercado-Bettin and Jos é and Qianlai Zhuang and Jeffrey S Dukes},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.1950},

doi = {10.1002/fee.1950},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment},

volume = {16},

number = {9},

pages = {525--531},

publisher = {Wiley},

keywords = {DGVMs, land-based mitigation},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}